“Services output was a modest 0.3pc higher in October compared to the Q3
average and would have to post decent rises in November and December to
equal Q3’s performance,” said Jonathan Loynes, an economist at Capital
Economics.

Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citigroup, said: “Partial data so far
show solid growth in industrial production but a modest gain in retail sales
and little change in construction output.

“We suspect some of these monthly activity readings understate the economy’s
momentum but, unless the services output data released at the same time are
very strong, we suspect growth will fall a little short of the 0.8pc pace
seen in Q3.”

While Britain’s rapid growth rate is expected to continue this year,
economists have raised concerns that the recovery is over-reliant on
consumer spending and unsustainable without a significant increase in real
wages, investment and export growth.

This was also stressed yesterday by Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of
England, who told a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the
recovery remained fragile and suggested it was not yet strong enough to
withstand an interest rate rise.

“As good as the numbers have been in the last three quarters in the United
Kingdom, we’re talking about three-quarters of household-led growth, an
economy that’s running 20pc below pre-crisis trends, that has substantial
spare capacity, that has not yet rebalanced and that faces significant
headwinds from its major trading partner from overall monetary conditions,”
he said.

“Exceptional stimulus remains very relevant to the environment.”

UK growth of 1.9pc in 2013 would also be lower than the pre-crisis average of
around 2.5pc and nowhere near the growth seen in 2007, when the economy grew
by 3.4pc. The economy would also remain 1.3pc smaller than its pre-crisis
peak in the first quarter of 2008. By contrast, Germany has already
recovered from its GDP slump.

Last week, Mr Carney admitted that the Bank’s “forward guidance” policy on
increasing interest rates would “evolve” at its next inflation report in
February because unemployment had fallen far faster than expected toward the
7pc threshold set by the Bank.

Last August, Mr Carney pledged that the Bank would not even consider raising
rates from their record low of 0.5pc until unemployment fell below the
threshold. At the time, the jobless rate was 7.8pc but it has since tumbled
to 7.1pc.

Mr Saunders said he expected the Bank to move away from “forward guidance”
towards “fuzzy” guidance.

“We expect the Bank to shift to a more fuzzy approach, emphasising that there
is no immediate need to hike rates, and when rates do rise, they are likely
to rise only gradually,” he said.

“This will represent a move towards a neutral stance rather than restraint.”