In the earlier parts of our interview, Vassilios Tsitsiringos, (Dr. V.K.Tsitsirigkos) gave some real insight into the nature of information in Greece, as well as the market conditions affecting Greek shipping. Now in part 4, we hear some very alarming statistics, and predictions about the Greece of 2025.

SK – Dr. Tsitsiringos, can you continue on what you were saying about the Greece of 2025?

Dr. T – Of course. Originally, my concerns about demographics were connected also to the financial crisis in Greece. However, this becomes more dire when considering the aging of the population. Currently about 20% of the Greek population is age 65 or older. This proportion of the population is expected to rise to over 24% by 2025, and, more alarming, to over 33% by 2050. Why is this alarming? Because those over 65 contribute much less to a country’s economy than those of the standard 18-65 working ages, and usually cost more than they contribute.

SK- So this is connected also to birth rates?

Dr. T –You must remember, the magic number of births per couple must be 2.11 (per couple) for a society to basically grow. Anything less than that (say 2.0) would mean a decline, and Greece has about 1.3 births per couple. That means by 2025 not only will there be rise in the proportion of the elderly to the young people, there will also be a growing trend for fewer and fewer young people. At the same time, there are over 2M legal (and maybe another 1M illegal immigrants) in Greece with a higher birthrate than 2.11. In fact, one in three births now is to immigrants and not Greeks. The result of that is quite obvious.

SK – So you are saying that Greece will have to grow its economy with a shrinking workforce while increasing its support for an expanding elderly population?

Dr. T- Precisely. Success here, is of course is highly unlikely, as you can imagine. As has been widely reported, Greece violated the EU’s Growth and Stability Pact budget deficit criteria of no more than 3% of GDP from 2001 to 2006, tried to meet that criteria in 2007-08, but failed again in 2009 -2010 culminating in the current crisis. In fact, Greece’s public debt, inflation, and unemployment are way above the euro-zone average. No one is talking about it, but Greece will never be able to pay off its debts. To complicate matters, tourism, which could be a saving element in Greece, has been spoiled by a variety of factors, with traditional tourists now visiting Turkey and Spain.

SK – You are painting a rather grim picture for Greece and Greeks.

Dr. T- I am not painting nor speculating. The facts speak for themselves. There is not a single sector in Greece that has not been affected. Greece’s future, which rests in her youth. The Greek youth are disillusioned, and many look elsewhere. in other countries. The ones who will stay will find their burden (tax and inflation) maybe unbearable.

Authors Note: Vassilios Tsitsiringos is a PhD in Economics and Finance, the author of several text books on Financial Engineering and a participant of the Greek shipowning community.