Europe might wish to review its present stance on EU-Russia relations, even though it could imply acting more independently of its Transatlantic Partner. Just how real is that? Radio VR is discussing it with Dr. Josef Janning, Senior Policy Fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Dr. Tatyana Romanova, Associate professor at the School of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University.

The European Parliament has unanimously supported the nomination of the Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini to a position of the EU High Representative for foreign affairs. The decision followed the hearings at the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee held Monday, where Ms Mogherini was invited to present her vision of EU foreign policy, including the relations with Russia. The audience seems to have appreciated what the Minister said. “In the next five years we’ll have to review our relations with Russia,” Mogherini told the committee. “At the moment Russia is not a partner (of the EU), but a strategic country and a neighbour, above all of Ukraine”.

So, how real are the prospects of EU taking a more pragmatic and independent position in its dealings with Russia?

Josef Janning: On the European end of the EU-Russian relations there is always room for pragmatism, because Russia is a neighbour, and will remain a neighbour. Whatever the quality of the relationship is, Russia is a major power. So, I think there are many incentives for the EU countries to explore whatever possibilities for the constructive relations are.

And that means that at times when there is a substantial disagreement about principle points, which is the current situation, there still is a momentum to seek to find ways to engage in other fields, in the hope that an overall constructive relationship will also be helpful to solve and settle, ultimately, the disputes and differences that exist today.

But then, Europe becomes, in a sense, hostage to its relations with the US, because, as far as I understand, the present American administration is not exactly in favour of Europe developing ties with Russia.

Dr. Josef Janning: Well, this has always been the case. You know, the US is far away and its trade relations with Russia are marginal, compared to that of Europe. So, the Europeans are in a quite different geopolitical and geo-economic situation, and their policy has to reflect this.

So, if you look back into the past, you will see that the Europeans have always been cautious not to base their own eastern policy entirely on what the Washington reading was. You know, the most striking example was after the invasion of the Soviet Union into Afghanistan. The US wanted to discontinue all the economic relations, which the Europeans were not convinced of.

And if you look back in history, I think it was useful that there were other grounds and other good reasons to be talking to each other and dealing with each other, in order to come to a more fruitful and more cooperative relations at last.

And is this sentiment also shared by the political class in Europe?

Dr. Josef Janning: Oh, yes, very definitely! I mean, the Europeans don’t engage in Washington’s bashing all the time. By and large, there are many points of agreement between the US and the European leaders and there is a substantial agreement on their disliking of the situation that arose in Ukraine, not least due to Russia’s actions. But on the European end of that, there is a firm determination that there must be a way out of this, and the Europeans should be ready to take extra efforts and walk an extra mile, if that is necessary to kind of reconstruct the EU-Russia relations.

At the moment the principle problem is not that there isn’t willingness, but the principle problem is – what should be the focal point of such attempts. Many Europeans had hoped for economic relations, business-to-business relations to become such an added layer that could be kept independent of the quality of the political relationship. But that isn’t moving.

Obviously, because sanctions are still in place…

Dr. Josef Janning: Well, but this preceded the sanctions. If you look at the German policy in the middle of the last decade, it was very much focused on trying to establish a rather comprehensive modernization partnership – something that other EU governments took up in 2009. And this interest and willingness is still there, but it very much depends on how responsive Russia will be to it. And it actually depends on what Russia wants its own industrial base to be in the future.

Perfectly true! But what do we need to do now? I mean, what could be the first steps at this situation to reconstruct the relationship?

Dr. Josef Janning: From the European angle, a negotiated settlement on the disputes in Ukraine and over Ukraine is a very important point. And the Europeans are ready to engage thoroughly in this, because they would like to see Russia take a seat at the table and actually also be a constructive negotiating partner, which, I believe many Europeans feel is already a major move towards the Russian position, because it acknowledges implicitly that Russia has an important part to play in the future of Ukraine, which was not so much heard in Europe before the crisis.

Then, I think the next step is that there is a rebuilding of trust, when it comes to the economic interdependence between the EU and Russia. Now, the Europeans need Russia, not least because of the resource economics and the very dense relationship there. Russia, on the other hand, could very well need Europe in terms of building its own industry, modernizing its industry, taking advantage of the huge European market that would be there. And that is currently not addressed at all by the Russian products, apart from natural resources.

So, this is, I think, a very strong basis. It does need a good political climate and you would find the EU states more than ready to lift in part or in total the sanctions over time, if that political rift was being properly addressed.

Dr. Tatiana Romanova: I think there is a certain reassessment of Russia and the EU-Russian relations, in a way. And the statement of Mrs. Mogherini that Russia is not a partner, but a country of strategic importance, is very telling. Basically, the fact that Russia is still important for the EU, means that the EU should engage with Russia, as opposed to just ignoring it or just imposing the sanctions. But, at the same time, the question is how to engage with Russia, because, at the end of the day, the EU still has to develop a model of dealing with Russia.

What the current events definitely prove, is that the previous model that the EU had for Russia didn’t work, in the sense that Russia cannot be treated as just another candidate country or another neighboring country. Russia needs the equality in treatment – something that Russia has always insisted upon and something that the EU has ignored for some time.

So, I think we can read this statement as understanding that Russia is a particular partner. Well, she says that Russia is not a partner any longer, so Russia cannot be treated the way it has been previously. But definitely, we do need to forge some sort of new type of relations, given the position of Russia, given the status of Russia, given the size of Russia and given the foreign policy of Russia.

As far as I understand, whether it succeeds or not largely relies on the situation in Ukraine?

Dr. Tatiana Romanova: I guess Russia is open for negotiations and the EU is open for negotiations as well, it is just that the expectations that the two partners have are slightly different, because there is an assumption that Russia has to make the first step, that Russia has to influence the leaders of the eastern Ukraine so that they are more cooperative. Russia has to, as it is said by the EU, withdraw its troops from the eastern Ukraine and be more cooperative with the West. And the Russian position is that – yes, we are ready to negotiate, but, at the same time, it is up to the eastern Ukraine and Kiev to agree on that.

And I think there is some positive thing in the statement of Mogherini, when she said that the EU has to work with Ukraine, because, at the end of the day, it is up to Ukraine to actually develop a new policy for itself and a new type of relations with Russia. So, in that sense, we do see this constructive attitude.

As for the compromises, the diplomacy is about compromises. And I guess both sides up to a point are prepared to do that, and are prepared to a solution that will be a long-term solution, because it is not in the interest of any of the parties, either Russia or the EU, to have instability in Ukraine and to have the situation, like we currently still have, unfortunately, in this country.

And there is another factor. And now I’m referring to the US-EU relations.

Dr. Tatiana Romanova: It is clear that the economic interest that the EU has is much stronger, than the economic interest of the US. And in that sense, the lack of relations or the sanctions imposed on Russia are much easier to bear for the American economy, than for the EU economy. Furthermore, the US is clearly farther away than Europe and it doesn’t bear the consequences of any instability in Europe. Well, they don’t bear the immediate consequences of the situation that exists at present.

So, I guess the economic, as well as the pressure of instability will encourage the EU to have a more independent line. But you are right to say that there are very strong political and security links between the US and the EU. And in that sense, the margin for maneuver for the EU is fairly narrow.

But I think there is also a disappointment on the part of the EU about this link. And during the same hearing in the European Parliament Mogherini expressed that she was surprised by Biden’s statement, that it was the US that pressured the EU into sanctions. So, that sounds like there is this feeling of annoyance on the part of the EU about this political influence and political bullying, in a way, of the US and that might actually encourage the EU to be more pragmatic.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that the previous level of the EU-Russia relations will be restored immediately, because, clearly, there is a profound lack of trust that emerged as a result of the current situation. But definitely, there is a realization that the sanctions do not affect Russia the way they were expected to affect and, therefore, a different line should be taken. Probably, a more diplomatic and a line that is targeted at more cooperation, and more involvement. A solution that would include the position of both, the EU and Russia, on the security in Europe, and on the long-term cooperation in Europe.