“The occupation of Novoazovsk by Russian troops and the potential battle for Mariupol threatens to trap a large contingent of ATO (anti-terrorist operation) forces in the Donetsk corridor and there would be options for the “Novorossiya” (New Russia) forces to open up a pathway to Crimea, and even beyond. On the other hand Russia’s forces remain quite small, between 1,000 and 15,000, according to different accounts,” he wrote.

“These figures, even at the upper limit, suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet committed to a full-scale assault on Ukraine, but is rather seeking to push the Ukrainians out of the Donbas and create a stalemate. First and foremost, it wishes to protect the two proxy governments and ensure that Ukraine does not take possession of its far-eastern provinces,” he added.

Marples says Ukraine has several options.

– Impose martial law and try to relief the trapped forces, with a risk of a wider military conflict.

– Withdraw ATO troops unilaterally from the Donbas. That option would leave the region under separatist and Russian control for the immediate future.

– Try to bring about immediate peace through negotiations. Russia would insist that the “people’s republics” must be included at the table but it would bring the EU and the United States into the equation and allow Ukraine to weigh its options.

“One possibility—it will not appeal to the more nationalistically minded—is to cut losses and solidify what remains. Ukraine might agree to the Donbas’ full autonomy or even independence—but not its joining Russia—provided that the latter (as well as the ATO) withdraw its troops and all aid to separatist forces, if the rest of the country were allowed by the West to take certain irrevocable steps,” Maples said.

The first of these would be direct, fast-track entry into the EU for the remainder of Ukraine, reducing the timeline for the usual bureaucratic processes and bringing about a quick vote in Brussels.

The second would be for Ukraine to join NATO, which would then offer full protection for the country minus the Donbas and Crimea. “Although in the past, many Ukrainians have been reticent about joining NATO, the vote today would be much closer, and without the Donbas and Crimea, it would likely be positive,” he said.

Ian Bremmer, a former U.S. ambassador and now president of the Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg Bloomberg Television that it was an illusion to think Donbass and Crimea would return to Ukraine.

“There was a belief — a belief on the part of the Ukrainian government and a belief on the part of markets — that has been critically mistaken, that the Ukrainians might somehow be allowed to retake their territory,” Bremmer said. “They’ve failed, and of course this is going to lead to much greater economic implications, negative implications, for the Europeans as well.”

Meanwhile, sanctions

In the meantime, it is most likely that sanctions against Russia will be stepped up.

“Europe does not have a lot of manoeuvring margin,” said Philippe Ricard of the Le Monde newspaper’s international service. He said further sanctions were possible like an end to defence contracts – France is still planning to deliver Mistral helicopter carriers under a 1.2 billion deal that safeguards many shipyard jobs.

Technology transfer sanctions or limits on financial transactions could also be imposed but Germany and Britain have reticences in these areas as it will hurt their industry and banks most.

“The leadership of Ukraine has asked since Thursday for military aid. A European answer will probably take time, but at the moment there is no question at all about delivering weapons to the Ukrainian forces,” Ricard said.

Europe and the United States should try to contain the crisis and work to a stand-off, not by just caving in to Putin but by taking a strong position from which to negotiate renewed peace.

Follow me @marmaamic on Twitter. For communications consulting please see my agency website M2Media.fr. My food and recipe blog is on MaitreMarcel