Bashkortostan and Tatarstan are two regions in the Russian Federation that have historically had a distinct cultural and linguistic identity. Over the years, there have been calls for greater autonomy and even independence from Russia. However, the likelihood of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan achieving independence is low, for several reasons.

Firstly, the Russian Federation is a centralized state, and any moves towards independence by any of its regions would be met with strong opposition from the federal government. The Constitution of the Russian Federation states that the country is a “federal state formed on the principle of the rule of law with a republican form of government.” This means that the federal government has ultimate authority over the regions, and any attempt by a region to secede from Russia would be seen as a violation of the country’s constitutional order.

Secondly, there are economic considerations that make independence unlikely. Both Bashkortostan and Tatarstan are important regions in terms of their natural resources, industry, and infrastructure. They are major producers of oil, gas, and chemicals, and have well-developed transportation networks. While these regions may have a strong sense of cultural identity, they are also economically interdependent with the rest of Russia. Any move towards independence would likely have a negative impact on their economies and could lead to a loss of investment and trade.

Thirdly, there is the question of popular support for independence. While there have been calls for greater autonomy and even independence from some quarters in Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, it is not clear that there is widespread support for such a move. Public opinion polls conducted in the regions have shown mixed results, with some indicating support for greater autonomy, but others showing that most people prefer to remain part of Russia.

Fourthly, there is the issue of international recognition. Even if Bashkortostan and Tatarstan were to declare independence, it is unlikely that other countries would recognize them as sovereign states. Russia has strong diplomatic and economic ties with many countries around the world, and any move towards independence by one of its regions would likely be seen as a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity. Most countries would be hesitant to recognize the independence of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, as this could set a precedent for other regions around the world to do the same.

In conclusion, while there have been calls for greater autonomy and even independence from Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, the likelihood of them achieving independence is low. The Russian Federation is a centralized state with a strong federal government, and any move towards independence would be met with resistance. The economic interdependence of these regions with the rest of Russia, the mixed support for independence, and the lack of international recognition also make independence unlikely. Photo by PetarM at Serbian Wikipedia.