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Russia Isn’t Alone: All Of Eastern Europe Has A Demographic Problem

I’ve been writing a lot lately about Russian demographic trends, but I haven’t gotten much of an opportunity to write about Eastern Europe as a whole. While Russia has some unique aspects to its situation (its drinking and drug problems are genuinely worse than other countries in the region and understandably attract a lot of attention), the simple fact is that Russia is not the only country to be dealing with an aging and shrinking population. Over the past 20 yeas, post-Communist Eastern Europe in general has witnessed the flight of young and well educated laborers, a sharp decrease in fertility, and rapid growth in the ranks of the elderly.

I stumbled across some data the other day that I thought was worth sharing, because it makes the point far more eloquently than I can that Russia is not a strange outlier but (if anything) is actually doing slightly better than other countries in the region who are trying to shake off the nasty side effects of communist dictatorship and command economics. The following graph shows the “dependency ratio,” or the relative size of a country’s 65+ population compared to its working-age population from 2000-2010 (the most recent year for which comparable data is available).

As you can clearly see, Russia just does not stand out from the crowd: its elderly population is proportionally about the same size it was back in 2000, and is a smaller share of the overall population than in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine. Russia has (justifiably!) faced criticism for the slowness of its pension reform and for its general lack of preparation in dealing with a population that will become older, sicker, and less likely to be in the workforce. But its challenges in this sphere, while real, are likely to be less severe than in numerous other countries.

EastEuropeDependencyRatio

This chart is essentially a very handy summary of why I think we should be just a little more cautious in describing Russia’s demographic travails. If the country really is “dying” or “collapsing,” then so is a fairly significant chunk of the European Union. Now simply because Russia is comparable to other countries doesn’t mean that everything will work out: perhaps all of Eastern Europe is doomed and there isn’t anything that anyone can do about. But you often hear countries like Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, countries that have long-term demographics that are essentially the same as Russia’s, described as “rising economic powers,” not as nightmarish landscapes full of empty villages and vodka-swilling pensioners.

I happen to think that disaster will (mostly) be avoided because human societies are extremely adaptable and because the region is much more economically open and competitive than it was in the past. It might not be pretty, but Eastern Europe will find a way to muddle through. Just know, though, that Russia isn’t the only country facing a demographic crisis.

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